Effect of Effective Contact Tracing in Curtaining the Spread of Covid-19
Isaac A. Olopade *
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Federal University Wukari, P.M.B. 1020, Wukari, Taraba State, Nigeria.
Sunday O. Adewale
Ladoke Akintola University of Technology (LAUTECH), P.M.B. 4000, Ogbomoso, Oyo State, Nigeria.
Idayat T. Muhammed
Department of Statistics, Osun State Polytechnic, P.M.B. 301, Iree, Osun State, Nigeria.
Gbenga A. Adeniran
Department of Physical Science, Chrisland University, P.M.B. 2131, Abeokuta, Ogun State, Nigeria.
Saheed Ajao
Ladoke Akintola University of Technology (LAUTECH), P.M.B. 4000, Ogbomoso, Oyo State, Nigeria.
Amos W. Ogunsola
Ladoke Akintola University of Technology (LAUTECH), P.M.B. 4000, Ogbomoso, Oyo State, Nigeria.
*Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Abstract
Seven (7) compartmental deterministic model of mathematical epidemiology is considered, using S, E, Iu, Id, J, Q, R to gain insight into how to curtail the spread of COVID-19 using contact tracing. Positivity analysis shows the model is mathematically and epidemiologically well posed. Basic Reproduction number R0 is evaluated using next generation matrix method, it shows corona virus dies when the threshold R0 is less than unity but spreads if R0 exceeds unity. It is shown that disease free global stability of the model is stable whenever basic reproduction is R0 less than unity but unstable when it is beyond unity i.e. (R0 > 1). The endemic equilibrium is shown to be stable using logarithmic Lyapunov function. Sensitivity analysis is performed on basic reproduction number to check the importance of each parameter on the dynamical transmission of corona virus. Numerical simulation of the model shows that effective contact tracing will reduce/forestall the dynamical spread of Covid-19 when inter-state lockdown is fully implemented for proper and effective tracing.
Keywords: Genomic imprinting in Isoetes, Corona virus, Abrupt DNA methylation, epidemic, Origin of heterospory, disease free equilibrium, Evolutionary strategies., reproduction number, stability